Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) is overvalued and Union Pacific Corp (UNP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. UNP is the closer of the two: -31%, against -98% for NSC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $158.46; the price of $314.00 is 98% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $209.54; the price of $274.41 is 31% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | NSC | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $314.00 | $274.41 |
| Intrinsic value | $158.46 | $209.54 |
| Margin of safety | -98% | -31% |
| Leak Score | 40/100 (10/12) | 51/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $70.5B | $163.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Operating margin | 32.1% | 39.9% |
| Net margin | 21.0% | 28.9% |
| Return on equity | 17.0% | 39.7% |
| Debt to equity | 1.02 | 1.51 |
| P/E | 26.8x | 22.2x |
| Forward P/E | 21.9x | 19.4x |
| P/B | 4.3x | 7.9x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 2.0% |