Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) is overvalued and Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TRN is the closer of the two: -16%, against -98% for NSC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $158.46; the price of $314.00 is 98% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.92; the price of $27.82 is 16% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | NSC | TRN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $314.00 | $27.82 |
| Intrinsic value | $158.46 | $23.92 |
| Margin of safety | -98% | -16% |
| Leak Score | 40/100 (10/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $70.5B | $2.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Operating margin | 32.1% | 15.2% |
| Net margin | 21.0% | 16.6% |
| Return on equity | 17.0% | 32.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.02 | 4.57 |
| P/E | 26.8x | 6.7x |
| Forward P/E | 21.9x | 12.5x |
| P/B | 4.3x | 1.9x |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 4.5% |