NRG Energy Inc (NRG) is slightly overvalued and Vistra Corp (VST) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NRG is the closer of the two: -16%, against -34% for VST.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $85.60; the price of $99.38 is 16% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 23/100 on 12 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $111.54; the price of $149.70 is 34% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $99.38 | $149.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $85.60 | $111.54 |
| Margin of safety | -16% | -34% |
| Leak Score | 23/100 (12/12) | 45/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $20.9B | $50.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 27.9% | 8.9% |
| Operating margin | 5.5% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 2.4% | 11.5% |
| Return on equity | 23.8% | 43.1% |
| Debt to equity | 4.83 | 3.63 |
| P/E | 26.3x | 25.3x |
| Forward P/E | 9.2x | 14.8x |
| P/B | 5.0x | 16.7x |
| Dividend yield | 1.9% | 0.7% |