NNN REIT Inc (NNN) is overvalued and Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NNN is the closer of the two: -24%, against -70% for SPG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $33.43; the price of $41.60 is 24% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $121.27; the price of $205.95 is 70% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 44/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | NNN | SPG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $41.60 | $205.95 |
| Intrinsic value | $33.43 | $121.27 |
| Margin of safety | -24% | -70% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 44/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $8.0B | $66.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.0% | 6.7% |
| Operating margin | 61.4% | 47.4% |
| Net margin | 40.3% | 25.3% |
| Return on equity | 8.7% | 135.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.12 | 6.64 |
| P/E | 20.5x | 39.1x |
| Forward P/E | 19.7x | 29.4x |
| P/B | 1.8x | 15.2x |
| Dividend yield | 5.9% | 4.4% |