Nike Inc (NKE) is overvalued and On Holding AG (ONON) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ONON trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +14%, against -25% for NKE.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.84; the price of $36.10 is 25% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 13.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $34.31; the price of $29.39 is 14% below that value, and 65% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 81/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | NKE | ONON |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $36.10 | $29.39 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.84 | $34.31 |
| Margin of safety | -25% | +14% |
| Leak Score | 63/100 (9/12) | 81/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $53.6B | $9.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.8% | 51.6% |
| Operating margin | 8.8% | 13.8% |
| Net margin | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| Return on equity | 22.1% | 24.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 0.32 |
| P/E | 17.2x | 19.7x |
| Forward P/E | 16.9x | 14.6x |
| P/B | 3.6x | 4.2x |
| Dividend yield | 4.5% | — |