New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR) is slightly overvalued and UGI Corp (UGI) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UGI trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +10%, against -11% for NJR.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $47.40; the price of $52.72 is 11% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $41.00; the price of $36.85 is 10% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 35/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | NJR | UGI |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $52.72 | $36.85 |
| Intrinsic value | $47.40 | $41.00 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | +10% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 35/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $5.3B | $7.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| Operating margin | 24.5% | 14.5% |
| Net margin | 16.4% | 9.2% |
| Return on equity | 14.4% | 13.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.47 | 1.35 |
| P/E | 14.6x | 12.3x |
| Forward P/E | 15.3x | 11.4x |
| P/B | 2.0x | 1.5x |
| Dividend yield | 3.6% | 4.1% |