NiSource Inc (NI) is slightly overvalued and Spire Inc (SR) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +0%, against -6% for NI.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $37.59; the price of $39.88 is 6% above that value.
Leak Score 31/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $78.79; the price of $78.50 sits right on that value, and 85% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | NI | SR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $39.88 | $78.50 |
| Intrinsic value | $37.59 | $78.79 |
| Margin of safety | -6% | +0% |
| Leak Score | 31/100 (10/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $19.1B | $4.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.2% | 5.9% |
| Operating margin | 27.0% | 19.7% |
| Net margin | 13.2% | 20.9% |
| Return on equity | 9.8% | 6.5% |
| Debt to equity | 1.82 | 2.03 |
| P/E | 21.1x | 8.8x |
| Forward P/E | 17.7x | 14.3x |
| P/B | 2.0x | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 4.2% |