National Grid Plc ADR (NGG) is overvalued and Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. XEL is the closer of the two: -8%, against -21% for NGG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $63.55; the price of $76.86 is 21% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $66.77; the price of $72.06 is 8% above that value.
Leak Score 37/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | NGG | XEL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $76.86 | $72.06 |
| Intrinsic value | $63.55 | $66.77 |
| Margin of safety | -21% | -8% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 37/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $77.3B | $45.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Operating margin | 28.5% | 21.2% |
| Net margin | 18.3% | 15.3% |
| Return on equity | 8.6% | 9.9% |
| Debt to equity | 1.19 | 1.73 |
| P/E | 17.6x | 19.7x |
| Forward P/E | 11.7x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 1.5x | 1.9x |
| Dividend yield | 4.3% | 3.3% |