Netflix Inc (NFLX) is overvalued and TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NFLX is the closer of the two: -23%, against -43% for TKO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $58.62; the price of $72.16 is 23% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 67/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $131.98; the price of $188.87 is 43% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | NFLX | TKO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $72.16 | $188.87 |
| Intrinsic value | $58.62 | $131.98 |
| Margin of safety | -23% | -43% |
| Leak Score | 67/100 (10/12) | 0/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $300.5B | $35.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.6% | 37.2% |
| Operating margin | 30.3% | 21.9% |
| Net margin | 28.0% | 4.3% |
| Return on equity | 49.5% | 6.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.55 | 1.46 |
| P/E | 22.7x | 65.3x |
| Forward P/E | 19.0x | 34.5x |
| P/B | 10.0x | 4.1x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.8% |