Netflix Inc (NFLX) is overvalued and Roku Inc (ROKU) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NFLX is the closer of the two: -24%, against -111% for ROKU.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $56.44; the price of $69.85 is 24% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 12 of 12 signals
A 1.7x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $73.75; the price of $155.54 is 111% above that value.
Leak Score 43/100 on 11 of 12 signals
| Metric | NFLX | ROKU |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $69.85 | $155.54 |
| Intrinsic value | $56.44 | $73.75 |
| Margin of safety | -24% | -111% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (12/12) | 43/100 (11/12) |
| Market cap | $290.9B | $23.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.6% | 21.6% |
| Operating margin | 30.3% | 5.3% |
| Net margin | 28.0% | 6.8% |
| Return on equity | 49.5% | 13.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.55 | 0.17 |
| P/E | 22.0x | 66.5x |
| Forward P/E | 18.4x | 39.5x |
| P/B | 9.7x | 8.2x |