Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) is undervalued and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co ADR (TAK) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NBIX trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +29%, against -86% for TAK.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $201.20; the price of $142.25 is 29% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.6% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $10.20; the price of $18.95 is 86% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | NBIX | TAK |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $142.25 | $18.95 |
| Intrinsic value | $201.20 | $10.20 |
| Margin of safety | +29% | -86% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $14.5B | $60.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 22.3% | -0.2% |
| Operating margin | 23.9% | 15.3% |
| Net margin | 20.9% | -3.5% |
| Return on equity | 22.1% | -2.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.11 | 0.65 |
| P/E | 20.8x | — |
| Forward P/E | 14.6x | 30.2x |
| P/B | 3.9x | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.4% |