Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) is overvalued and Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, WYNN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +53%, against -30% for MTN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $107.16; the price of $138.98 is 30% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $176.42; the price of $82.51 is 53% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | MTN | WYNN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $138.98 | $82.51 |
| Intrinsic value | $107.16 | $176.42 |
| Margin of safety | -30% | +53% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $5.0B | $8.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.6% | 27.8% |
| Operating margin | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | 6.1% |
| Return on equity | 21.0% | — |
| Debt to equity | 5.90 | — |
| P/E | 31.6x | 19.8x |
| Forward P/E | 22.7x | 16.5x |
| P/B | 9.0x | — |
| Dividend yield | 6.4% | 1.3% |