Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) is overvalued and Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (VAC) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, VAC trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +15%, against -30% for MTN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $107.16; the price of $138.98 is 30% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $116.32; the price of $99.15 is 15% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | MTN | VAC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $138.98 | $99.15 |
| Intrinsic value | $107.16 | $116.32 |
| Margin of safety | -30% | +15% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 30/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $5.0B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.6% | 11.8% |
| Operating margin | 16.1% | 10.4% |
| Net margin | 5.4% | -6.5% |
| Return on equity | 21.0% | -14.7% |
| Debt to equity | 5.90 | 2.69 |
| P/E | 31.6x | — |
| Forward P/E | 22.7x | 10.3x |
| P/B | 9.0x | 1.7x |
| Dividend yield | 6.4% | 2.7% |