Match Group Inc (MTCH) is fairly valued and Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MTCH is the closer of the two: -1%, against -71% for SPOT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $41.24; the price of $41.71 is 1% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 12.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $292.81; the price of $501.30 is 71% above that value, and 67% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MTCH | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $41.71 | $501.30 |
| Intrinsic value | $41.24 | $292.81 |
| Margin of safety | -1% | -71% |
| Leak Score | 63/100 (8/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $9.6B | $103.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.8% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 28.1% | 14.6% |
| Net margin | 20.2% | 18.4% |
| Return on equity | — | 44.9% |
| Debt to equity | — | 0.06 |
| P/E | 14.7x | 31.2x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | 28.5x |
| P/B | — | 10.8x |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | — |