Match Group Inc (MTCH) is fairly valued and Reddit Inc (RDDT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MTCH is the closer of the two: -1%, against -83% for RDDT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $41.24; the price of $41.71 is 1% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 13.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $84.92; the price of $155.67 is 83% above that value, and 64% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 5 of 12 signals
| Metric | MTCH | RDDT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $41.71 | $155.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $41.24 | $84.92 |
| Margin of safety | -1% | -83% |
| Leak Score | 63/100 (8/12) | 59/100 (5/12) |
| Market cap | $9.6B | $30.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.8% | 57.3% |
| Operating margin | 28.1% | 28.2% |
| Net margin | 20.2% | 31.4% |
| Return on equity | — | 30.7% |
| Debt to equity | — | 0.01 |
| P/E | 14.7x | 36.2x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | 21.9x |
| P/B | — | 9.1x |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | — |