ArcelorMittal SA (MT) is overvalued and Ternium SA ADR (TX) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TX trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +19%, against -262% for MT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $20.40; the price of $73.78 is 262% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.30; the price of $56.43 is 19% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | MT | TX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $73.78 | $56.43 |
| Intrinsic value | $20.40 | $69.30 |
| Margin of safety | -262% | +19% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 30/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $55.6B | $11.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.8% | 11.9% |
| Operating margin | 4.3% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| Return on equity | 3.3% | 5.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| P/E | 31.1x | 15.9x |
| Forward P/E | 10.4x | 7.5x |
| P/B | 1.0x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 4.3% |