ArcelorMittal SA (MT) is overvalued and Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. STLD is the closer of the two: -129%, against -262% for MT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $20.40; the price of $73.78 is 262% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $102.14; the price of $233.99 is 129% above that value, and 69% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | MT | STLD |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $73.78 | $233.99 |
| Intrinsic value | $20.40 | $102.14 |
| Margin of safety | -262% | -129% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 45/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $55.6B | $33.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.8% | 13.6% |
| Operating margin | 4.3% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | 2.9% | 7.8% |
| Return on equity | 3.3% | 17.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| P/E | 31.1x | 21.2x |
| Forward P/E | 10.4x | 11.7x |
| P/B | 1.0x | 3.6x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 0.9% |