Morgan Stanley (MS) is overvalued and Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TW trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +1%, against -28% for MS.
Values as of the 16 Oct 2026 close.
Book value at 1.92x, the multiple a 18.0% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $141.34; the price of $180.57 is 28% above that value.
Leak Score 44/100 on 11 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $114.15; the price of $113.49 is 1% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 66/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | MS | TW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $180.57 | $113.49 |
| Intrinsic value | $141.34 | $114.15 |
| Margin of safety | -28% | +1% |
| Leak Score | 44/100 (11/12) | 66/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $283.6B | $26.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| Operating margin | 20.2% | 43.6% |
| Net margin | 15.2% | 40.6% |
| Return on equity | 18.0% | 14.1% |
| Debt to equity | 3.48 | 0.02 |
| P/E | 14.3x | 27.1x |
| Forward P/E | 13.1x | 24.4x |
| P/B | 2.6x | 3.6x |
| Dividend yield | 2.4% | 0.5% |