Moderna Inc (MRNA) is overvalued and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. VRTX is the closer of the two: -36%, against -2452% for MRNA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its liquidation floor, current assets minus every liability, values the shares at $7.15; the price of $182.56 is 2452% above that value.
Leak Score 29/100 on 7 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $380.05; the price of $514.99 is 36% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $182.56 | $514.99 |
| Intrinsic value | $7.15 | $380.05 |
| Margin of safety | -2452% | -36% |
| Leak Score | 29/100 (7/12) | 65/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $72.9B | $130.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 19.3% | 14.2% |
| Operating margin | -149.0% | 39.5% |
| Net margin | -141.4% | 34.7% |
| Return on equity | -39.0% | 23.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| P/E | — | 30.0x |
| Forward P/E | — | 24.4x |
| P/B | 10.8x | 6.4x |