Merck & Co Inc (MRK) is overvalued and Novartis AG ADR (NVS) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NVS is the closer of the two: -27%, against -205% for MRK.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.49; the price of $150.91 is 205% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $111.38; the price of $141.28 is 27% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MRK | NVS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $150.91 | $141.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $49.49 | $111.38 |
| Margin of safety | -205% | -27% |
| Leak Score | 40/100 (9/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $372.3B | $258.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 9.3% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 18.8% | 29.6% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | 23.3% |
| Return on equity | 7.0% | 30.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| P/E | 120.6x | 21.3x |
| Forward P/E | 15.8x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 8.9x | 6.2x |
| Dividend yield | 2.3% | 3.1% |