Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is overvalued and Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MPC is the closer of the two: -37%, against -128% for VLO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $284.85; the price of $389.68 is 37% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $165.56; the price of $377.14 is 128% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 64/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | MPC | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $389.68 | $377.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $284.85 | $165.56 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | -128% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (10/12) | 64/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $109.4B | $108.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.9% | 13.6% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 47.9% | 29.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.80 | 0.45 |
| P/E | 13.4x | 15.6x |
| Forward P/E | 8.5x | 9.8x |
| P/B | 5.8x | 4.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 1.3% |