Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is overvalued and Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UGP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against -37% for MPC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $284.85; the price of $389.68 is 37% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.78; the price of $7.69 is 44% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MPC | UGP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $389.68 | $7.69 |
| Intrinsic value | $284.85 | $13.78 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (10/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $109.4B | $8.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Return on equity | 47.9% | 21.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.80 | 1.09 |
| P/E | 13.4x | 12.7x |
| Forward P/E | 8.5x | 12.6x |
| P/B | 5.8x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 5.2% |