Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is overvalued and Phillips 66 (PSX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MPC is the closer of the two: -37%, against -46% for PSX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $284.85; the price of $389.68 is 37% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $175.90; the price of $256.78 is 46% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $389.68 | $256.78 |
| Intrinsic value | $284.85 | $175.90 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | -46% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (10/12) | 60/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $109.4B | $102.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.9% | 15.7% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 5.9% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 4.6% |
| Return on equity | 47.9% | 24.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.80 | 0.65 |
| P/E | 13.4x | 14.6x |
| Forward P/E | 8.5x | 10.1x |
| P/B | 5.8x | 3.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 2.0% |