Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is overvalued and PBF Energy Inc (PBF) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PBF trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +49%, against -37% for MPC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $284.85; the price of $389.68 is 37% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $140.37; the price of $71.44 is 49% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MPC | PBF |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $389.68 | $71.44 |
| Intrinsic value | $284.85 | $140.37 |
| Margin of safety | -37% | +49% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (10/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $109.4B | $8.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.9% | 14.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 3.2% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 3.9% |
| Return on equity | 47.9% | 23.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.80 | 0.39 |
| P/E | 13.4x | 6.3x |
| Forward P/E | 8.5x | 4.9x |
| P/B | 5.8x | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 1.5% |