MP Materials Corp (MP) is overvalued and Vale SA ADR (VALE) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, VALE trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against -1881% for MP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 0.9x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $2.58; the price of $51.04 is 1881% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $25.51; the price of $14.19 is 44% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | MP | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $51.04 | $14.19 |
| Intrinsic value | $2.58 | $25.51 |
| Margin of safety | -1881% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $9.1B | $57.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.4% | -0.9% |
| Operating margin | -16.7% | 28.3% |
| Net margin | -14.6% | 4.9% |
| Return on equity | -3.6% | 5.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| P/E | — | 29.9x |
| Forward P/E | 62.9x | 7.7x |
| P/B | 4.6x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | — | 7.1% |