MP Materials Corp (MP) is overvalued and Rio Tinto plc ADR (RIO) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, RIO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +37%, against -1881% for MP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 0.9x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $2.58; the price of $51.04 is 1881% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $153.66; the price of $97.49 is 37% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MP | RIO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $51.04 | $97.49 |
| Intrinsic value | $2.58 | $153.66 |
| Margin of safety | -1881% | +37% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $9.1B | $122.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| Operating margin | -16.7% | 26.7% |
| Net margin | -14.6% | 19.6% |
| Return on equity | -3.6% | 19.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| P/E | — | 13.2x |
| Forward P/E | 62.9x | 11.8x |
| P/B | 4.6x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | — | 5.1% |