Movado Group Inc (MOV) is slightly overvalued and Therealreal Inc (REAL) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MOV is the closer of the two: -8%, against -75% for REAL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $30.89; the price of $33.28 is 8% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 37/100 on 7 of 12 signals
A 0.9x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $5.66; the price of $9.90 is 75% above that value.
Leak Score 40/100 on 7 of 12 signals
| Metric | MOV | REAL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $33.28 | $9.90 |
| Intrinsic value | $30.89 | $5.66 |
| Margin of safety | -8% | -75% |
| Leak Score | 37/100 (7/12) | 40/100 (7/12) |
| Market cap | $531M | $1.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.5% | 18.2% |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | -0.6% |
| Net margin | 6.0% | -10.8% |
| Return on equity | 8.3% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.13 | — |
| P/E | 18.4x | — |
| Forward P/E | 14.3x | 42.1x |
| P/B | 1.5x | — |
| Dividend yield | 4.5% | — |