Mosaic Company (MOS) is overvalued and Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MOS is the closer of the two: -66%, against -82% for SMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $14.93; the price of $24.73 is 66% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.88; the price of $52.68 is 82% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | MOS | SMG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $24.73 | $52.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $14.93 | $28.88 |
| Margin of safety | -66% | -82% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $7.9B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.8% | -3.8% |
| Operating margin | 6.8% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | -5.2% | 2.2% |
| Return on equity | -5.3% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.53 | — |
| P/E | — | 46.1x |
| Forward P/E | 16.9x | 10.9x |
| P/B | 0.7x | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.5% | 5.1% |