Mosaic Company (MOS) is overvalued and Nutrien Ltd (NTR) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NTR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +10%, against -66% for MOS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $14.93; the price of $24.73 is 66% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.76; the price of $75.43 is 10% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MOS | NTR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $24.73 | $75.43 |
| Intrinsic value | $14.93 | $83.76 |
| Margin of safety | -66% | +10% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $7.9B | $36.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Operating margin | 6.8% | 13.8% |
| Net margin | -5.2% | 8.4% |
| Return on equity | -5.3% | 9.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| P/E | — | 15.3x |
| Forward P/E | 16.9x | 15.2x |
| P/B | 0.7x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 3.5% | 2.9% |