Modine Manufacturing Co (MOD) is overvalued and O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ORLY is the closer of the two: -51%, against -204% for MOD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 12.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $64.36; the price of $195.96 is 204% above that value, and 67% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $56.94; the price of $85.82 is 51% above that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | MOD | ORLY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $195.96 | $85.82 |
| Intrinsic value | $64.36 | $56.94 |
| Margin of safety | -204% | -51% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 54/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $10.4B | $69.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.0% | 8.9% |
| Operating margin | 10.9% | 19.6% |
| Net margin | 4.3% | 14.3% |
| Return on equity | 13.0% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.56 | — |
| P/E | 73.8x | 27.3x |
| Forward P/E | 17.9x | 23.4x |
| P/B | 8.7x | — |