Altria Group Inc (MO) is overvalued and Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MO is the closer of the two: -33%, against -61% for TPB.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $51.57; the price of $68.64 is 33% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $37.33; the price of $60.28 is 61% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 49/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | MO | TPB |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $68.64 | $60.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $51.57 | $37.33 |
| Margin of safety | -33% | -61% |
| Leak Score | 54/100 (8/12) | 49/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $114.6B | $1.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -0.7% | 2.7% |
| Operating margin | 71.6% | 16.9% |
| Net margin | 38.9% | 8.8% |
| Return on equity | — | 13.7% |
| Debt to equity | — | 0.72 |
| P/E | 14.4x | 25.9x |
| Forward P/E | 11.7x | 31.1x |
| P/B | — | 2.8x |
| Dividend yield | 6.3% | 0.5% |