Altria Group Inc (MO) is overvalued and Philip Morris International Inc (PM) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. PM is the closer of the two: -29%, against -33% for MO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $51.57; the price of $68.64 is 33% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 54/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $147.10; the price of $190.23 is 29% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | MO | PM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $68.64 | $190.23 |
| Intrinsic value | $51.57 | $147.10 |
| Margin of safety | -33% | -29% |
| Leak Score | 54/100 (8/12) | 50/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $114.6B | $296.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -0.7% | 7.2% |
| Operating margin | 71.6% | 37.3% |
| Net margin | 38.9% | 25.6% |
| P/E | 14.4x | 27.3x |
| Forward P/E | 11.7x | 20.8x |
| Dividend yield | 6.3% | 3.2% |