MGM Resorts International (MGM) is undervalued and Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, MGM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +32%, against -30% for MTN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.7% values the shares at $57.32; the price of $38.90 is 32% below that value, and 85% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 41/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $107.16; the price of $138.98 is 30% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | MGM | MTN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $38.90 | $138.98 |
| Intrinsic value | $57.32 | $107.16 |
| Margin of safety | +32% | -30% |
| Leak Score | 41/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $9.8B | $5.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 27.7% | 8.6% |
| Operating margin | 6.5% | 16.1% |
| Net margin | 2.4% | 5.4% |
| Return on equity | 15.4% | 21.0% |
| Debt to equity | 12.00 | 5.90 |
| P/E | 23.5x | 31.6x |
| Forward P/E | 19.5x | 22.7x |
| P/B | 3.9x | 9.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 6.4% |