McDonald's Corp (MCD) is overvalued and Yum Brands Inc (YUM) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. YUM is the closer of the two: -8%, against -21% for MCD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $206.94; the price of $250.35 is 21% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $129.33; the price of $139.71 is 8% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | MCD | YUM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $250.35 | $139.71 |
| Intrinsic value | $206.94 | $129.33 |
| Margin of safety | -21% | -8% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (8/12) | 65/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $177.2B | $38.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.0% | 7.8% |
| Operating margin | 45.7% | 32.4% |
| Net margin | 31.7% | 25.4% |
| P/E | 20.3x | 17.6x |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 19.3x |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 2.1% |