McDonald's Corp (MCD) is overvalued and Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TXRH is the closer of the two: -20%, against -21% for MCD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $206.94; the price of $250.35 is 21% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $138.80; the price of $166.12 is 20% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | MCD | TXRH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $250.35 | $166.12 |
| Intrinsic value | $206.94 | $138.80 |
| Margin of safety | -21% | -20% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (8/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $177.2B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.0% | 19.6% |
| Operating margin | 45.7% | 8.2% |
| Net margin | 31.7% | 6.6% |
| Return on equity | — | 27.5% |
| Debt to equity | — | 0.70 |
| P/E | 20.3x | 26.6x |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 21.3x |
| P/B | — | 7.0x |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 1.8% |