McDonald's Corp (MCD) is overvalued and Starbucks Corp (SBUX) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. MCD is the closer of the two: -21%, against -185% for SBUX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $206.94; the price of $250.35 is 21% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $33.32; the price of $95.11 is 185% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 46/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | MCD | SBUX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $250.35 | $95.11 |
| Intrinsic value | $206.94 | $33.32 |
| Margin of safety | -21% | -185% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (8/12) | 46/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $177.2B | $108.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.0% | 9.6% |
| Operating margin | 45.7% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | 31.7% | 5.2% |
| P/E | 20.3x | 54.8x |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 30.1x |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 2.6% |