Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is overvalued and PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PYPL trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +51%, against -23% for MA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $451.02; the price of $555.89 is 23% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $108.56; the price of $52.89 is 51% below that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 79/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | MA | PYPL |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $555.89 | $52.89 |
| Intrinsic value | $451.02 | $108.56 |
| Margin of safety | -23% | +51% |
| Leak Score | 70/100 (9/12) | 79/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $487.0B | $45.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 16.5% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 59.2% | 18.9% |
| Net margin | 46.3% | 14.3% |
| Return on equity | 241.5% | 24.5% |
| Debt to equity | 4.39 | 0.72 |
| P/E | 30.6x | 10.0x |
| Forward P/E | 24.1x | 9.1x |
| P/B | 87.0x | 2.3x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 0.6% |