Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) is overvalued and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NOC is the closer of the two: -25%, against -47% for LMT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 14.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $355.67; the price of $522.34 is 47% above that value, and 59% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $408.92; the price of $509.86 is 25% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | LMT | NOC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $522.34 | $509.86 |
| Intrinsic value | $355.67 | $408.92 |
| Margin of safety | -47% | -25% |
| Leak Score | 51/100 (10/12) | 38/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $120.6B | $72.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Operating margin | 11.8% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | 8.2% | 10.5% |
| Return on equity | 89.2% | 27.0% |
| Debt to equity | 2.34 | 0.95 |
| P/E | 19.3x | 16.2x |
| Forward P/E | 16.0x | 16.7x |
| P/B | 13.7x | 4.0x |
| Dividend yield | 2.7% | 1.9% |