Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) is overvalued and Merck & Co Inc (MRK) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. LLY is the closer of the two: -35%, against -205% for MRK.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $869.22; the price of $1170.14 is 35% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.49; the price of $150.91 is 205% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 40/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $1170.14 | $150.91 |
| Intrinsic value | $869.22 | $49.49 |
| Margin of safety | -35% | -205% |
| Leak Score | 63/100 (9/12) | 40/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $1.10T | $372.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 21.6% | 9.3% |
| Operating margin | 49.7% | 18.8% |
| Net margin | 33.5% | 4.8% |
| Return on equity | 102.4% | 7.0% |
| Debt to equity | 1.62 | 1.29 |
| P/E | 39.8x | 120.6x |
| Forward P/E | 24.9x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 32.5x | 8.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 2.3% |