Kroger Co (KR) is overvalued and Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NGVC trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +12%, against -83% for KR.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $31.93; the price of $58.56 is 83% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $34.08; the price of $30.08 is 12% below that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 47/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | KR | NGVC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $58.56 | $30.08 |
| Intrinsic value | $31.93 | $34.08 |
| Margin of safety | -83% | +12% |
| Leak Score | 43/100 (10/12) | 47/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $34.6B | $693M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.2% | 5.1% |
| Operating margin | 3.2% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| Return on equity | 14.2% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 4.14 | 1.35 |
| P/E | 31.7x | 14.7x |
| Forward P/E | 10.6x | 13.3x |
| P/B | 6.0x | 2.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | 1.7% |