Carmax Inc (KMX) is overvalued and Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PAG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +0%, against -111% for KMX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.0% values the shares at $26.99; the price of $56.84 is 111% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $210.83; the price of $209.86 sits right on that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | KMX | PAG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $56.84 | $209.86 |
| Intrinsic value | $26.99 | $210.83 |
| Margin of safety | -111% | +0% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (3/12) | 30/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $8.1B | $13.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.7% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 2.1% | 3.4% |
| Net margin | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| Return on equity | 3.6% | 15.6% |
| Debt to equity | 3.08 | 1.61 |
| P/E | 37.4x | 15.4x |
| Forward P/E | — | 14.5x |
| P/B | 1.3x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.0% |