Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) is overvalued and J.M. Smucker Co (SJM) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SJM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +12%, against -67% for KHC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its through-the-cycle earnings (12.8% median margin), capitalised at 6.9% with no growth, values the shares at $14.36; the price of $24.00 is 67% above that value.
Leak Score 23/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $138.36; the price of $121.11 is 12% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 22/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | KHC | SJM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $24.00 | $121.11 |
| Intrinsic value | $14.36 | $138.36 |
| Margin of safety | -67% | +12% |
| Leak Score | 23/100 (8/12) | 22/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $28.5B | $12.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -1.0% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| Net margin | -13.6% | 2.5% |
| Return on equity | -8.8% | 3.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.53 | 1.21 |
| P/E | — | 56.8x |
| Forward P/E | 11.6x | 11.1x |
| P/B | 0.8x | 2.3x |
| Dividend yield | 6.7% | 3.7% |