Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is overvalued and Novartis AG ADR (NVS) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. NVS is the closer of the two: -27%, against -32% for JNJ.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $204.15; the price of $269.19 is 32% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $111.38; the price of $141.28 is 27% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | JNJ | NVS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $269.19 | $141.28 |
| Intrinsic value | $204.15 | $111.38 |
| Margin of safety | -32% | -27% |
| Leak Score | 50/100 (9/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $648.7B | $258.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 27.0% | 29.6% |
| Net margin | 21.5% | 23.3% |
| Return on equity | 25.7% | 30.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.58 | 1.18 |
| P/E | 31.2x | 21.3x |
| Forward P/E | 21.2x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 7.6x | 6.2x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 3.1% |