Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is overvalued and Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. JNJ is the closer of the two: -32%, against -35% for LLY.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $204.15; the price of $269.19 is 32% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $869.22; the price of $1170.14 is 35% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | JNJ | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $269.19 | $1170.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $204.15 | $869.22 |
| Margin of safety | -32% | -35% |
| Leak Score | 50/100 (9/12) | 63/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $648.7B | $1.10T |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.7% | 21.6% |
| Operating margin | 27.0% | 49.7% |
| Net margin | 21.5% | 33.5% |
| Return on equity | 25.7% | 102.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.58 | 1.62 |
| P/E | 31.2x | 39.8x |
| Forward P/E | 21.2x | 24.9x |
| P/B | 7.6x | 32.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 0.6% |