Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is overvalued and Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WMS is the closer of the two: -30%, against -91% for JCI.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $77.55; the price of $148.22 is 91% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 11 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $98.51; the price of $127.78 is 30% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 63/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | JCI | WMS |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $148.22 | $127.78 |
| Intrinsic value | $77.55 | $98.51 |
| Margin of safety | -91% | -30% |
| Leak Score | 63/100 (11/12) | 63/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $89.8B | $9.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 1.1% | 9.0% |
| Operating margin | 14.4% | 21.5% |
| Net margin | 14.3% | 14.0% |
| Return on equity | 14.9% | 25.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| P/E | 25.8x | 22.1x |
| Forward P/E | 24.1x | 17.3x |
| P/B | 6.7x | 5.1x |
| Dividend yield | 1.1% | 0.6% |