J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT) is overvalued and ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ZTO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +60%, against -120% for JBHT.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $107.70; the price of $237.41 is 120% above that value, and 69% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 61/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.12; the price of $19.84 is 60% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | JBHT | ZTO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $237.41 | $19.84 |
| Intrinsic value | $107.70 | $49.12 |
| Margin of safety | -120% | +60% |
| Leak Score | 61/100 (10/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $22.3B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 13.3% |
| Operating margin | 7.6% | 20.2% |
| Net margin | 5.3% | 19.0% |
| Return on equity | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| P/E | 33.7x | 10.8x |
| Forward P/E | 23.6x | 8.7x |
| P/B | 6.1x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 4.1% |