International Paper Co (IP) is slightly undervalued and Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, IP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +9%, against -23% for PKG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.2% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $39.36; the price of $35.71 is 9% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $194.36; the price of $238.23 is 23% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | IP | PKG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $35.71 | $238.23 |
| Intrinsic value | $39.36 | $194.36 |
| Margin of safety | +9% | -23% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (8/12) | 38/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $18.9B | $21.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.1% | 6.2% |
| Operating margin | 0.9% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | -14.1% | 7.2% |
| Return on equity | -16.5% | 14.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.83 | 0.94 |
| P/E | — | 31.0x |
| Forward P/E | 11.8x | 17.6x |
| P/B | 1.3x | 4.5x |
| Dividend yield | 5.3% | 2.2% |