Illumina Inc (ILMN) is overvalued and Waters Corp (WAT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WAT is the closer of the two: -235%, against -290% for ILMN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $63.42; the price of $247.46 is 290% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $127.06; the price of $425.74 is 235% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | ILMN | WAT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $247.46 | $425.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $63.42 | $127.06 |
| Margin of safety | -290% | -235% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (10/12) | 45/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $37.4B | $41.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Operating margin | 19.9% | 11.8% |
| Net margin | 18.4% | 3.6% |
| Return on equity | 32.4% | 1.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.89 | 0.36 |
| P/E | 46.1x | 106.3x |
| Forward P/E | 40.7x | 25.8x |
| P/B | 13.2x | 2.8x |