Illumina Inc (ILMN) is overvalued and Natera Inc (NTRA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ILMN is the closer of the two: -290%, against -573% for NTRA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $63.42; the price of $247.46 is 290% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 62/100 on 10 of 12 signals
A 2.7x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $58.09; the price of $390.90 is 573% above that value.
Leak Score 42/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | ILMN | NTRA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $247.46 | $390.90 |
| Intrinsic value | $63.42 | $58.09 |
| Margin of safety | -290% | -573% |
| Leak Score | 62/100 (10/12) | 42/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $37.4B | $56.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.0% | 42.6% |
| Operating margin | 19.9% | -10.6% |
| Net margin | 18.4% | -7.1% |
| Return on equity | 32.4% | -12.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.89 | 0.13 |
| P/E | 46.1x | — |
| Forward P/E | 40.7x | — |
| P/B | 13.2x | 30.8x |