Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) is undervalued and Vistra Corp (VST) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, HNRG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +50%, against -34% for VST.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $23.48; the price of $11.66 is 50% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 74/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $111.54; the price of $149.70 is 34% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | HNRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $11.66 | $149.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.48 | $111.54 |
| Margin of safety | +50% | -34% |
| Leak Score | 74/100 (10/12) | 45/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $550M | $50.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.7% | 8.9% |
| Operating margin | 1.7% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | -0.2% | 11.5% |
| Return on equity | -0.6% | 43.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25 | 3.63 |
| P/E | 563.3x | 25.3x |
| Forward P/E | 49.6x | 14.8x |
| P/B | 2.9x | 16.7x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.7% |